Actuarial Talent of the Year Gabriela Silva warns of uninsurable neighbourhoods due to climate risks
The more accurately insurers are able to predict climate risks, the greater the risk that certain homes and neighbourhoods will become difficult to insure, or only insurable at a high cost. Gabriela Silva, who was named Actuarial Talent of the Year 2026 today, is therefore calling on actuaries to look beyond the model itself.
With access to ever more data and increasingly sophisticated models, insurers are able to assess climate risks with greater precision. In the future, it may become possible to predict the likelihood of damage caused by flooding, extreme heat or land subsidence at postcode, neighbourhood or even individual property level.
From an actuarial perspective, higher risk quickly translates into higher premiums. But this could also create a broader societal problem. People with sufficient financial means may be able to move to areas with lower climate risks. Others may be left behind in neighbourhoods where risks are increasing, property values may decline and insurance becomes more expensive or increasingly difficult to obtain.
According to Gabriela, this requires actuaries to take a broader perspective. The question is not only how accurately can we calculate a risk? but also: what happens when we put that knowledge into practice?
“Actuaries must continue to ask themselves whether the model they are using is appropriate for the question at hand and whether historical data are suitable for making assumptions about the future. But equally important is ensuring that the red flags we identify are actually recognised and taken seriously,” Gabriela says.
Prevention, solidarity and risk-sharing can all be part of the solution. According to Gabriela, the challenge is to prevent increasingly precise pricing from ultimately leaving those who have the least ability to avoid those risks to bear the greatest burden.
A new generation of actuaries
Gabriela was named Actuarial Talent of the Year 2026 during the Day of the Actuary in Zeist. Alongside Gabriela Silva, Tom Peters, Manager AI & Science at PwC, and Jens Robben, a Postdoctoral Researcher at the University of Amsterdam specialising in longevity risk, were nominated for the title.
The five-member jury see Gabriela as an example of a new generation of actuaries.
As Head of Capital Management at Allianz, Gabriela connects issues relating to capital management, solvency and modelling with strategic decision-making. According to the jury, she looks beyond the management of existing risks. Instead, she asks which risks may emerge tomorrow, where existing solutions fall short and what role insurers can play in addressing them.
According to the jury, Gabriela demonstrates what the award represents: setting a direction, bringing people along and enabling others to increase their own impact. The actuary of the future not only understands and assesses risks, but also considers the wider societal relevance of the profession and explores new opportunities to bring about meaningful change.
The Actuarial Talent of the Year 2026 award was presented during the Day of the Actuary 2026 in Zeist.